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Babatunde Adenodi
Pharmacist
East Orange,
New Jersey
 USA

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It is my prayer that our president outlives his detractors who are busy planning to take over from him should anything happen to him. They will not want to follow the dictates of the constitution. Jonathan is not one of them and they will not let him take over. The president should act to make this scenario unnecessary by taking time off now, hand-over to Jonathan and head for Europe and America to treat himself very well and go back to Nigeria thereafter healthy and reinvigorated.

 

 

The Ultimate Succession Crisis
 by Tunde Adenodi.
 

No one but former President Olusegun Obasanjo knows why he chose Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to replace him after his tenure in office.  But I suspect that he believed that Yar’Adua was the least harmless of all the potential candidates. He had possibly transferred his admiration for Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, his military Chief of Staff, who died mysteriously in Abacha’s gulag to the younger brother. He might also have thought that the memories of their late father, Musa Yar’Adua, the Minister for Lagos Affairs under Tafawa Balewa, was so endearing to him that he thought his son Umaru,  was so urbane and liberally minded enough to be Nigeria’s President. Not to forget the 1983 elections when, in a rare show of political astuteness, Shehu Musa urged his followers in the north to vote for Awolowo’s UPN. It is certain that Obasanjo did not fail to notice this and many other factors in his political calculations.

Some people even suggested, most maliciously, that Obasanjo knew that Umaru Musa was so sick that he might not finish his first term in office. Whatever was Obasanjo’s reason for selecting Umaru Musa is now mute. He is our President and he has not been doing too well in office and as we all know, his health has deteriorated tremendously. No one has to be a physician to know this. He came back from vacation looking so sick that I thought he should go back to the hospital for admission.  He should take some time off from state affairs and take good care of his health. In doing that, he must hand over constitutionally to his vice and ignore his advisors who would rather put fire in Nigeria if he did otherwise as they are suggesting.

We have been having self-inflicted crises of succession. The next one will be the ultimate. It will be the last one for Nigeria. And let me predict the end: the north, especially the Gideon Orkar excised states, also known as the Shari a state, will bear the brunt of the anger of all other Nigerians like never before in the history of Nigeria. Let me explain:

Since independence, we have had a preponderance of northerners leading the country in a manner so reckless that they had to give up the post in 1999 to save face. Thus, Obasanjo came out of Abacha’s prison to assume the presidency. Not because they loved Obasanjo or indeed their country, but because the alternative choices available to them were too hard to swallow and they were not about to allow themselves to be out of contention from the presidency for a long time. So, handing over to a proxy whom they had trusted to do their bidding was a risk worth taking.

Since plunging us into a crisis of succession so grave that it threatened the very existence of the country, it has been General Ibrahim Babangida’s self-imposed duty to ensure that whoever emerges as Nigeria’s leaders owes some allegiance to him and owes his primary loyalty not to Nigeria’s constitution but the northern power brokers and northern interest. And any means utilized to achieve this regardless of the sensibilities of all other Nigerians is fair game.

Babangida as President and Ebitu Ukiwe as the vice demonstrated this schism clearly. Ukiwe’s personality made it difficult to ignore his office without a hint of protest. But Aikhomu, as a “yes sir” vice, made it much easier for the same Babangida to have his way without a whimper.

Is Vice President Jonathan in the mould of Ukiwe or Aikhomu? If his antecedents are anything to go by, then he is an Aikhomu and therefore will not force Yar’Adua to do what is, to the Nigerian constitution, the most politically correct and most importantly, the legal thing to do should Yar’Adua be indisposed.

The Nigerian constitution is clear in stating conditions that warrant the handing over to the Vice President. In death or temporary disability of the President, the Vice President takes over. Not the secretary to the government or any other person. But Yar’Adua, under the spell of his northern constituents will have none of that. He was clearly disabled by reason of illness. He chose to go AWOL leaving 150 million people in limbo. He did not inform the Assembly of his 2-week vacation and when it was reported that he was on vacation, the Senate stated that it was not obliged to recognize Vice President Jonathan as the Acting President!

No one who comes from a vacation ever looks like the way our president looks in those pictures. He looks frail and gaunt. He looks sick. It was rumored that he has instructed his aides to disallow any photographer from taking any close-up pictures of him. And if he loves himself and loves Nigeria as well as I hope he does, he should take 3 months off, hand over properly to Vice President Jonathan and devote time to take care of his health.

General Jeremiah Useni was the most senior of the soldiers under Abacha. He was the next in line to be Nigeria’s Head of State. Useni is a northerner. But he is not northern enough for the likes of al-Mustapha and the power brokers. He is not a Gideon Orkar excised or Shari a  northerner and consequently is not qualified to be Nigeria’s President. So, they by-passed him for a lesser known Abdusalami Abubakar and gave power to Babangida’s neighbor in Minna and protégé in the Army. Thus, we had IBB’s second term in office almost without realizing it! Who do you think was in charge when Abubakar was the front?

No! Babagana Kingibe was not playing by the rules. He should have allowed himself only to be seen, not heard. And he paid a heavy price for that. He had thought that he was dealing with MKO Abiola whose vice president he was. He ditched Abiola without batting an eye the moment that he knew Babangida would not hand over to Abiola. He did not know that Yar”Adua was not Abiola. The rest of the crew, however, is following the script. Babangida, and the rest of the cabal are watching intently. Jonathan will not become Nigeria’s President even if the sun were crashing down from up high because of that. YES. The north must maintain the presidency even when it is clear that, 2 years into his administration, Yar’Adua is still trying to figure out why he is president and what to do with the awesome power at his disposal.

If you must lead, should you not try to lead well? If you must govern, should you not try to govern well? His illness apart, Yar’Adua is not different from Tafawa Balewa or Shehu Shagari! There has been nothing in his administration to endear him to the governed. There has been no political, economic and security development in the country since he took office. The banking sector is collapsing and the Naira is crashing with it. The Delta region is near a rebellion and crude oil production is stalling. Armed Robbers are ruling and NEPA is still comatose. The poor is getting poorer and the rich richer. There is a lot of water, but not a drop to drink. The 6th largest producer of crude oil is importing all its gasoline and other petroleum products. And no one appears to be in charge because of ineptitude and most importantly because of ill health of our president.

For those who insist that Obasanjo was not good, let’s hear your mid-term verdict on Yar’Adua.

Yes! Obasanjo was not good. Indeed he was bad. The following facts, however, are sacrosanct: Obasanjo inherited 34 billion dollars as our external debt; he paid it all and accumulated an external reserve of about 20 billion dollars at the end of his tenure. For the most part of his tenure, the naira was stable. The economy was not in a tail-spin. He distributed offices by the federal character principle and he was the most well-intentioned Nigerian president ever. Twice he led the country at a most difficult period in the history of the nation. Twice he handed over to a northerner: first to Shehu Shagari and second to Umaru Yar’Adua. His first time out, he left voluntarily, and the second time, he left, but not without a fight. 

General Babangida is bent on coming back as President. Any means to achieve this is acceptable to him. And he is not in short supply of hangers-on who are working towards it. In the immediate past, they had suggested that the President should resign and hand-over to Jonathan who must appoint Babangida as vice. Then IBB would then take over from Jonathan. How this will be possible is being worked out. In all these, the people do not matter. And Jonathan’s constituency, the goose that lays the golden egg, does not feature in their calculations. MEND, the militant group complaining about the bad treatment meted out to the Delta area is a mere irritant that should be dealt with just like they dealt with Ken Saro Wiwa.

For decades, this group of power brokers controlled the coercive forces in Nigeria. So, they could do what they liked when they liked it.  The rest of the nation was a mere spectator. But Babangida’s reckless annulment of Abiola’s election changed all that. And Obasanjo’s second ascendancy to the Presidency made all aware of their political machinations. The oppressor never gives up oppressing; but the oppressed should not fold his arms. He should make it expensive and undesirable for oppressors to continue their oppression.

It is my prayer that our president outlives his detractors who are busy planning to take over from him should anything happen to him. They will not want to follow the dictates of the constitution. Jonathan is not one of them and they will not let him take over. The president should act to make this scenario unnecessary by taking time off now, hand-over to Jonathan and head for Europe and America to treat himself very well and go back to Nigeria thereafter healthy and reinvigorated.


 

 

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